Pains Me: There Is No Good Reason To Lay-Up At Riviera's 10th
/
I fought the good fight. I wanted so badly to believe laying up could still matter. I even argued with a few players who were good sports in at least listening to my case.
They were right. These athletes today are just too much for Riviera’s 10th. The yoga, the Pilates, the organic foods, the fiber, it’s too much for Riviera’s tenth at 315 yards. With some Santa Ana winds likely making it downwind, the one condition Jack Nicklaus would consider driving the green in, driving irons may be enough to get there Thursday.
The tenth at Riviera is just a long par-3. Still a compelling and weird one, but with its bizarre design evolution and the extra squats by today’s players, it is not the best short par-4 on the PGA Tour. That’s because it’s a par-3.
Now, don’t let me dampen your Genesis Invitational plans because we have a stellar week on hand despite the lack of fans. Perfect weather, elite field, great course and expanded television coverage. All swell as long as your electricity is working.
That painful admission made, the comments and numbers do not lie.
Collin Morikawa:
COLLIN MORIKAWA: Most likely I'll be hitting driver every single day or whatever gets me to that front edge, kind of just rolls over. I keep looking at the wedge shot. I keep saying yes, we can hit a 70-yard wedge shot, we can hit a 100-yard wedge shot, but when you look at the green and how narrow and shallow it is, it just doesn't make sense in my head. Like especially how firm the greens are, that first bounce is going to bounce so far, so you're working with two yards, two, three yards. When you're on, you're going to hit that shot, but if you're off a little bit and there's wind or it's cold or whatever, that can cost you being in the short bunker, that can cost you being over. You hit driver, hit it down there, most likely you'll hopefully have a chip shot. If you don't have it at the pin, you'll have a chip shot at the middle of the green, two-putt, you know. If I'm even par, I'm not going to be sad, I'm not going to be happy, I'm going to be just okay with even par because I don't think I'm really losing any shots to the field if I'm even par through four rounds on that hole.
Q. So it's basically saying the wedge shot's no guarantee so there's no real advantage?
COLLIN MORIKAWA: Absolutely.
Xander Schauffele:
XANDER SCHAUFFELE: Statistically, I am--as my dad made aware to me today thatI'm not very good from 50 to 125 yards, I would not be laying up on that hole. That would leave me about 50 to 125 yards in. So I will be going for it like I have every other year and kind of rely on getting up and down and a couple good bounces here and there. The 10th is a special hole here, it's a key hole for the tournament and it can kind of either make or break your week.
Q. So no matter what the pin, you're going for it?
XANDER SCHAUFFELE: I will be pulling some sort of furniture out on the tee.
Less risk-reward and more hit-and-hope.
There are solutions of course, The hole needs extra length until the USGA/R&A local rules come into play, and the green desperately needs to be restored size-wise.
Anyway, I’m procrastinating. The numbers from the always stout Shotlink team:
Par 4 10th Hole - Riviera Country Club
According to ShotLink
2nd Second toughest par 4 under 350 yards on TOUR since start of 2013-14 season (3.94)
197th The drivable par-4 10th hole at Riviera Country Club was the 197th easiest hole on the PGA TOUR last season (-0.12).
4 The 10th hole at Riviera Country Club has played under par in four of the last five seasons
-222 Field combined score to par on the par-4 10th hole in the last five seasons
12 total players six under or better on this hole in the last five seasons
-10 Byron DeChambeau’s cumulative score to par on the par-4 10th hole in the last five seasons (best of any player)
61.81% Green in Regulation percentage from inside 75 yards on the 10th hole in last 10 seasons, toughest green to hit in regulation from within this distance on TOUR (min 300 attempts)
3,289 Since 2011, there have been 3,289 shots played on the 10th hole from inside 75 yards and the field has hit the green in regulation on 61.81% of those approach shots (2,033 of 3,289).
87.20% Last season the average TOUR player from inside 75 yards hit the green 87.20% of the time from this distance and players hit the green in regulation from inside 75 yards 63.29% of the time on this hole in 2020 (7th highest GIR percentage since 2003).
96.0% Last season, James Hahn has the best Greens in Regulation percentage from this distance of any player, hitting the green 96.00% of the time.
79.52% of the field went for the green and were a combined 63-under par. The remaining 20.48% of the field choose to layup were a combined 18-over par. This marked the highest Going for the Green percentage on this hole in the ShotLink era.
Well and that’s why it’s a par-3 now.
376 In 2020, there were 376 tee shots on the par-4 10th hole at Riviera Country Club
7,629 Since 2003, there have been 7,629 tee shots on the 10th hole. Players going for the green are a combined 789-under par compared to just 117-over par combined for players laying up.
Alright you made your point already.
-20 Aaron Baddeley has the best cumulative score to par on the par-4 10th hole of any player in the ShotLink Era (-20)
3 The most times a player has hit the green off the tee on the par-4 10th hole in the ShotLink Era (Scott Verplank, Scott Brown, Matt Kuchar, Aaron Baddeley & Sung Kang)
16 Total rounds played by Patrick Cantlay on the 10th hole at Riviera CC since 2012 without making a bogey or worse (most of any player)
51.6% Since 2012, players only manage to salvage par 51.6% of the time when the flagstick is on the back-right side of the green.
72% / 31% Since 2003, 148 tee shots hit the green and 107 made birdie or better (72%). Keeping your tee shot left on the 10th hole is key. Historically, 1 out of every 3 players to hit their tee shot in the right rough come away with bogey or worse (31%).
