"Win Equity" Stat A Fascinating Study And One We Probably Won't See Adapted By Tours

When I saw the euphemistic-sounding “Win Equity” stat cooked up by John Ezekowitz , a No Laying Up fan fed up with debates over Tony Finau’s one win status, I feared an excuse-maker for players who seem to have immense talent, contend a lot, but just don’t seem to win much.

But just based on my C+ math skills, this seemed like a pretty neat bit of research that looks how players perform on the weekend and how often they are genuinely unlucky to lose. We’ve had our share over the years and more recently, Rickie Fowler and Tony Finau have gotten the most attention.

Anyway, check out his Medium post here. This is Strokes Gained level stat-re-imagination but I wouldn’t count on adoption by the PGA Tour since it could put a player in a negative light (even though the stat also validates who have been recently clutch performers, something fans and the, eh-em, investors would like to know).

This can be illustrated through a stat I call Win Equity, which is defined as Expected Wins given Actual Play minus Expected Wins entering Round 4. Generating positive Win Equity means that a player outperformed his expectations, ignoring what others shot. This stat best removes luck from the equation of final round play.

Finau’s performance in Win Equity especially noteworthy: in the 36 final rounds where Finau has entered in the top 10, he has added win equity through his play in only 3 of them (2017 Valero Texas Open, 2019 HSBC Champions and 2018 Safeway Open). That is by far the lowest rate amongst these players.